Obama Coat Tails Likely to Decide Senate Races

by | Oct 29, 2008 | Uncategorized

Things continue to look grim for opponents of the Employee Free Choice Act. The remaining key races could be decided by factors that are difficult to predict and impossible to control. The Obama campaign has purchased vast amounts of television time so even if Republican candidates wanted to purchase additional time it would be tough to do even if they had the money, which many of them don’t. So, this could come down to the size of Obama’s coat tails. Will he be able to carry Democratic candidates into office with him.

Here is where we stand today:

* Alaska – The jury is still out, literally. Stevens is on trial for lying on his financial disclosure form. The case has gone to the jury but one juror was dismissed Monday and replaced by an alternate. This brings into question whether there will be a verdict. Stevens is counting on a not-guilty verdict to put him over the top but if the jury is still out on election-day it will hurt his chances. Democrat Mark Begich has consistently been ahead in the polls but only by a small margin.

UPDATE: Stevens was convicted today on seven counts of failing to report improper gifts he received from 1999 to 2006. Give Alaska to the Democrats!

* Colorado – The Democratic candidate Mark Udall leads by double digits.

* Georgia – One month ago Republican Saxby Chambliss was ahead by 17 points. Today that lead is down to 2. A heavy African- American turnout could swing this state to Democrat Jim Martin.

* Kentucky – As in Georgia, a double-digit lead for the Republican one month ago has dwindled to within the margin of error. Democrat Bruce Lunsford has turned Minority Leader Mitch McConnell’s seat into a race too close to call.

* Mississippi – Another very close state. The polls show Republican Roger Wicker ahead but by a small margin. A heavy African-American turnout could swing this state to Democrat Ronnie Musgrove.

* Minnesota – Former comedian Al Franken leads Republican Norm Coleman but the race has tightened. Al Franken is funny. This race is not. Put this in the toss-up column.

* New Hampshire –The Democratic candidate Jeanne Shaheen leads by over 8 points.

* New Mexico – Democrat Tom Udall leads by 17 points.

* North Carolina – Democrat still leads over Republican Elizabeth Dole. A heavy Obama vote could seal the deal.

* Oregon – Democrat Jeff Merkley leads Republican Gordon Smith but still within the margin of error. Obama has big lead in this state so his coat tails could make the difference.

* Virginia – Democrat Mark Warner has 25 point lead.

The Democrats are certain to pick up 4 states and very likely to pick up 1 more. This leaves 6 states in the absolute toss-up column (Kentucky, Mississippi, Georgia, Minnesota, Alaska and Oregon.) All these races have been trending to the Democrats but four are strong McCain states. As the Presidential race stands today these states are as follows:

Alaska…………McCain 57 Obama 33
Kentucky…….McCain 53 Obama 41
Mississippi….McCain 49 Obama 39
Georgia……….McCain 50 Obama 44
Minnesota…..McCain 40 Obama 51
Oregon……….McCain 38 Obama 53

Conventional wisdom would say that the Democrats win the Obama states and Republicans the McCain states. But Alaska will probably be decided based on the outcome of the trial. If Stevens is found guilty, there is a hung jury or the jury is still deliberating he looses. If he is found not guilty he wins.

I have a funny feeling about Georgia. As late as mid-September McCain had a strong double digit lead that has constantly narrowed and the Chambliss lead has shrunk even more. Almost 30% of the state is African-American and they are exceptionally motivated voters this year.

I feel better about Mississippi. Even though the race is close and African-Americans make up 36 percent of the population Wicker has consistently held his narrow lead and has shown little slippage.

The Kentucky race shouldn’t be anywhere near this close. Incumbent Senate Minority leader in a GOP-friendly state should be winning easily. But the state is 57% Democrat and just elected a Democratic Governor by 18%. The financial situation is also a factor but in the final analysis McConnell should win.

So, how does this all add up. Democrats win 3 of the 6 states still in play (plus perhaps Alaska) for a total 8 or 9 seats increasing their majority to 57 or 58. With 2 Independents and 1 Republican who supported the Free Choice Act last year the prospects of defeating the legislation in the next Congress look grim.

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