November 2, 2010, a day that could live in infamy.  That is the date of the next election to determine the composition of the 112th Congress.  This is the Congress that will almost certainly determine the future of labor management relations for years to come.  By the time this Congress takes office the future of health care will probably be resolved one way or the other.  The recovery will be under way and unemployment will have bottomed and be showing improvement.  That will clear the way for the next major pieces of legislation, those impacting labor management relations, headlined by the Employee Free Choice Act.  The composition of the new Senate will clearly determine the outcome of this proposed law.  It is likely the Democrats will lose seats in the House as almost always happens in off-year elections, but they are likely to retain their majority.  The Senate is a little trickier.  The Democrats need their 60 vote majority to have any chance of passing major labor legislation.

In the 2010 election, 36 Senate races will be contested not counting the January special election in Massachusetts to fill the remainder of Ted Kennedy’s term.  Another special election is also probable next spring if, as expected, Senator Kay Bailey Hutchinson (R-Texas) resigns to run for governor.

The 36 races include 34 full six-year terms and two special elections, one to fill the remaining four years of Vice President Joe Biden’s term (Delaware) and one to fill the remaining two years of Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton’s term (New York). The current composition of the Senate is 58 Democrats, 2 Independents who vote with the Democrats, and 40 Republicans.  Each party will be defending 18 seats (19 if we count the two pre-November special elections, which we will until they are conducted).  Two Democrats have announced their retirements, both recent appointees.  Roland Burris of Illinois who was appointed to fill the remainder of President Obama’s term and Ted Kaufman of Delaware who was appointed to fill the remainder of Vice-President Joe Biden’s term have announced they will not run for re-election.  Six Republicans have also announced their retirements; Kit Bond of Missouri, Sam Brownback of Kansas, Jim Bunning of Kentucky, Judd Gregg of New Hampshire, George LeMieux of Florida and George Voinovich of Ohio.  All remaining Senators are likely to run for re-election.

During the next 12 months we will closely follow the competitive races to keep you as up-to-date as possible.  Organized labor and other pro-union organizations will be pumping millions of dollars into these competitive races.  Business interests, particularly in the current economic situation, may be in a position to make far fewer contributions to our candidates than in the past.  There will be literally hundreds of organizations attempting to raise money to assist candidates who are opposed to the Employee Free Choice Act.  Most of these will spend a high percentage of the money collected to raise more money rather than assist candidates or will spend the money in the wrong races.  While LRI does not attempt to raise money for political purposes, we believe we can direct you to those organizations in specific competitive states to allow you to get the most bang for your political contribution dollars.

Money talks.  Everyone on Capitol Hill knows that money, particularly early money, is the mother’s milk of politics.  If a candidate, usually an incumbent, can build a huge cash advantage, it will discourage other candidates from entering the race.  While it is possible for an under-funded candidate to win an election it is the exception rather than the rule.  So in addition to early poll numbers it is even more important to consider the money difference when trying to predict the outcome of a particular race.  Our FTM (Follow the Money) scale tracks the candidates fundraising activity and cash on hand.

The following races are currently considered safe, meaning they are not likely to be competitive and will remain with the incumbent party:

The remaining contests are competitive or could become competitive:

Bill White

Texas (Special Election) – This could be a real wild card.  If Kay Bailey Hutchison resigns (she has announced her candidacy for Governor but is still a Texas Senator and has waffled on a previous announcement to resign in November), Governor Rick Perry would make an interim appointment until a May, 2010 special election.  This election is an all-party primary with the two highest vote getters meeting in a run-off (assuming no one gets a majority).  So it is possible that a run-off could be between two Republicans or two Democrats.  Half of the crackpots in Texas could run in this thing and no one knows what will happen.  But Houston Mayor Bill White, a Democrat, looks to have a lot of support, is building the foundation for a formidable run, and has 3.3 million in the bank.  Another Democrat, John Sharp has 2.9 million.  No Republican has over 800 thousand.

Senator Harry Reid

Nevada – Who would’ve thunk it.  Senate majority leader Harry Reid in trouble.  This is what Republicans are seeking as their signature win.  In a recent poll Reid trailed two relatively unknown Republican candidates, was viewed unfavorably by half the respondents and favorably by only 38%.  The money going into this election will make the casinos green with envy.  In the third quarter alone Reid raised over $2 million, giving him over $12 million for the election cycle including almost $9 million cash on hand.  But out of state money in going to flow into this campaign in record amounts.  Reid is shooting for a $25 million war chest, which should give him a sizable financial advantage, especially if a high-profile Republican primary develops.  The Nevada economy is in the toilet, but the union vote is still strong.  Also worth noting is the similarity between Reid’s situation and that of New Jersey Governor John Corzine, an unpopular incumbent in a state with a lousy economy.  Corzine got torched and Republicans hope this model holds up in Nevada.   Reid’s FTM number is 8.7 M to opponents 1.5 M.

Senator Chris Dodd

Connecticut – The field of Republican candidates looks like a Wal-Mart on the Friday after Thanksgiving.  Democrat Chris Dodd is widely considered the most vulnerable incumbent and a Republican victory would be almost as big as a win over Harry Reid.  The ethics problem over an alleged special mortgage deal was dismissed and by next November should not play an important role.  Like Nevada there will be a ton of out-of-state money flowing into this campaign.  The leading GOP contender is Representative Rob Simmons who had a 5-point lead over Dodd in a September poll, but World Wrestling Entertainment CEO Linda McMahon is spending money like the federal government.  She has already spent over $2 million and is reportedly prepared to spend $30 million (of her own money) to obtain the Republican nomination.  That’s a lot of money even if you say it fast.  Dodd (2.08 M) is currently ahead of McMahon (1.45 M) on the FTM scale, but that is just chickenfeed in this race

Beau Biden

Delaware – Long considered a safe Democratic seat until early October when Republican Representative Mike Castle announced he would run.  Until then the odds on favorite was Beau Biden, the state Attorney General and son of Vice President Joe Biden.  This race now sets up as one of the most competitive Democratic held seats and is certain to become one of the most nationally visible and one of the most expensive.  Vice President Biden is going to be busier that a one-armed paperhanger trying to do his job in DC while campaigning for Beau in Delaware.  At this point there are no FTM numbers on this race.

Congressman Mark Kirk

Illinois – Senator Roland Burris, who was appointed by former Governor Rod Blagojevich to fill the seat of President Obama, announced in July that he would not run for election.  Several candidates from each party are expected to run in the primary, which will take place in February so the race may remain unsettled until then.  State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias and Chicago Urban League President Cheryle Jackson are among the Democrats who have entered the race, while Congressman Mark Kirk is the most recognizable Republican.  On the FTM scale Giannoulias and Kirk are almost tied and are far ahead of their opponents.

Gilbert Baker

Arkansas – Democrat Blanche Lincoln has her work cut out to win her third term in office.  She is the Chairman of the Senate Agriculture, Nutrition and Forestry committee, a very important committee for Arkansas.  She has also amassed almost $4 million, which is a bunch in a small media state.  However, in recent polling she is behind each of four potential Republican challengers including State Senator Gilbert Baker who leads her by 8 points.  McCain beat Obama here by 20 points and the current health care debate has Lincoln somewhat conflicted.  She is also between a rock and a hard spot on the Employee Free Choice Act.  Wal-Mart on one side and organized labor on the other and both are applying heat.  She will have a lot of money (4 million cash on hand) but remains vulnerable.  Her FTM number is very strong (4.1 M) compared to Baker (0.5 M).

Jane Norton

Colorado – Democrat Michael Bennet was appointed to the Senate after former Senator Ken Salazar was appointed to Secretary of the Interior.  Bennet will first face a primary fight against Andrew Romanoff who was bypassed for the appointment.  Bennett (2.85 M) has a strong early FTM lead over Romanoff (0.24) and most of the Democratic bigs have backed Bennett.  But Romanoff is a sharp young gun and can’t be dismissed.  On the Republican side former Lt. Governor Jane Norton, who has led Bennet in early polling, has a (0.49) FTM number.

Joe Sestak

Pennsylvania – Arlen Specter is in a very tough fight for his sixth term.  First he has to beat Joe Sestak in a May primary, then defeat Republican Pat Toomey in November.  There are more left turns in this campaign than a NASCAR race.  Specter, not exactly a hard core conservative, has been moving left since he switched parties.  But compared to Sestak he is a right wing nut job.  Specter is the Democratic party establishment choice but Sestak is going after the traditional Pennsylvania democrats including union members and traditional democrats.  Pat Toomey, who was once thought to be too conservative for Pennsylvania tastes has softened some of his positions and is now a creditable threat.  FTM numbers give Specter (8.7 M) a big edge but Sestak (4.7 M) is respectable.  The primary will cost each of them a bunch and Toomey (1.8) hopes they both have to spend it all.

Charlie Melancon

Louisiana – You would think that being the client of a prostitution ring would be a problem for a southern Senator.  Louisiana is a big family values state but some would question which family.  Republican David Vitter looked like he was going to get a pass on his indiscretion but then Democratic congressman Charlie Melancon decided to enter the race and made it competitive again.  Vitter (3.9 M) has a decent lead over Melancon (1.8 M) and will be tough to dislodge but since the dems have declared the prostitution scandal fair game the attack ads should be a hoot and late night television should have plenty of material.

Carly Fiorina

California – This one may not be competitive very long if it is competitive now.  Democrat Barbara Boxer won her third term in ‘04 by 20 points and even though a few polls have challenger Republican Carly Fiorina fairly close, most have Boxer ahead by double digits.  Fiorina hasn’t done herself any favors early in the campaign and even though the former Hewlett-Packard CEO has plenty of personal money it is unclear if she is willing to spend any of it on a campaign.

Richard Burr

North Carolina – This is an interesting race. Incumbent Republican Richard Burr is well funded, scandal free and leading in the polls.  But his approval rating is below 50% and last year President Obama carried the state, Democrat Kay Hagen beat incumbent Republican Elizabeth Dole and Democrat Bev Perdue was elected Governor.  Burr’s FTM number ( 3.4 M) is way ahead of any other declared candidate.  But until a couple of other people announce their intentions the race will remain one to watch.

Kelly Ayotte

New Hampshire – This is an open seat caused by the retirement of Republican Judd Gregg.  The Democrats have their man in Congressman Paul Hodes (1.14 M).  Republicans are still trying to sort things out.  Former Attorney General Kelly Ayotte (0.56 M) is the leading candidate but she first will have to win a primary.  The Democrats consider New Hampshire one of their top three or four opportunities to pick up a seat so they will be throwing a lot of money into this race.

Lee Fisher

Ohio – The Democrats have a hot hand in Ohio.  Last year they picked up one Senate seat, the Governor’s mansion and President Obama carried the state.  Things are still kind of iffy but the primaries next year will begin to sort things out.  The Democrats obviously believe this is a state they can win and pick up an open seat since Republican Senator George Voinovich decided to retire.  Former Representative Rob Portman (5.14 M) is the odds-on favorite on the Republican side while Lt. Governor Lee Fisher (1.59 M) is a slight favorite for the Democrats.  Ohio will get a lot of attention and the Dems are counting on this big-time.

Robin Carnahan

Missouri – Two of the state’s most famous political names will wage an all out battle for this open seat.  When Republican Senator Kit Bond announced his retirement the spotlight fell directly on Democratic Secretary of State Robin Carnahan (1.84 M) and Republican Representative Roy Blunt (2.27 M).  Carnahan is the sister of Representative Russ Carnahan and the daughter of the late Governor Mel Carnahan and former Senator Jean Carnahan.  Blunt is the father of former Governor Matt Blunt.  The presidential race last year was won by Obama by only 4,000 votes and this race could be just as close.

Governor Charlie Crist

Florida – This is another open seat following the retirement of Republican Mel Martinez.  The Republicans got a huge break when Governor Charlie Crist decided to run.  Crist (6.25 M) appears to be in very good shape in all the polls. Representative Kendirck Meek (2.66) is leading the way for the Democrats.

Rand Paul

Kentucky – Kentucky looked like a gimmie for the Democrats until wildly unpopular Senator Jim Bunning decided to retire.  Low poll ratings and no money can do that occasionally.  As is fitting in the blue grass state, this is going to be a real horse race from the starting gate.  On the Republican side Secretary of State Trey Grayson (1.11M) was the early favorite but Representative Rand Paul (0.91 M), son of former presidential candidate Ron Paul is getting a lot of attention.  For the Democrats Lt. Governor Daniel Mongiardo (0.75 M) and Attorney General Jack Conway (1.64 M) lead the way.  They’re in the gate.

Stay tuned…

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